CONTENTS
SPECIAL ISSUE
Roland Wenzlhuemer (Ed.):
Counterfactual Thinking as a Scientific Method / Kotrafaktisches Denken als wissenschaftliche Methode..
INTRODUCTION
Roland Wenzlhuemer
Editorial: Unpredictability, Contingency and Counterfactuals. 9
Neal J. Roese & Mike Morrison
The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking. 16
Roland Wenzlhuemer
Counterfactual Thinking as a Scientific Method. 27
COUNTERFACTUAL HISTORY
Richard Ned Lebow
Counterfactuals, History and Fiction. 57
Georg Schmid
Counterfactuals and Futures Histories. Retrospective Imagining as an Auxiliary for the Scenarios of Expectance. 74
Ann Talbot
Chance and Necessity in History: E.H. Carr and Leon Trotsky Compared. 88
COUNTERFACTUALS IN OTHER DISCIPLINES
Geoffrey Winthrop-Young
Fallacies and Thresholds: Notes on the Early Evolution of Alternate History. 99
Helmut Weber
The ‘But For’ Test and Other Devices – The Role of Hypothetical Events in the Law. 118
Jens Ennen
The Evaluation of Welfare State Performance: Modelling a Counterfactual World. 129
Ekaterina Svetlova
“Do I See What the Market Does Not See?”: Counterfactual Thinking in Financial Markets. 147
CASE STUDIES IN COUNTERFACTUAL HISTORY
Juliane Schiel
Crossing Paths between East and West. The Use of Counterfactual Thinking for the Concept of “Entangled Histories”. 161
Elke Ohnacker
“What If ... Charlemagne’s Other Sons had survived?” Charlemagne’s Sons and the Problems of Royal Succession. 184
Sören Philipps
The Birth of the European Union: Challenging the Myth of the Civilian Power Narrative. 203
Tobias Winnerling
Invented Formosa, the Empire of the Great Khan and Lilliput: Can 18th Century Fiction be Counterfactual? 215
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MIXED ISSUE
ARTICLES
Rainer Diaz-Bone
Konvention, Organisation und Institution. Der institutionentheoretische Beitrag der „Économie des conventions“. 235
Bernt Schnettler & Jürgen Raab
Interpretative Visual Analysis Developments: State of the Art and Pending Problems. 65
Ralf Bohnsack
The Interpretation of Pictures and the Documentary Method. 296
Annette Vowinckel
Past Futures: From Re-enactment to the Simulation of History in Computer Games. 322
CLIOMETRICS
Carlo Ciccarelli & Stefano Fenoaltea
Shipbuilding in Italy, 1861-1913: The Burden of the Evidence. 333